Incalculable Solar Giant

The German photovoltaics market booms against expectations.
Despite the credit crunch and funding reductions, the development of photovoltaics more than doubled in Germany in 2009, with 3800 megawatts. Analysts anticipate another doubling in 2010 – despite decreasing commission.

The analysts at Photon Consulting are rejoicing: 3800 megawatts (MW) of photovoltaic (PV) capacity was installed in Germany in 2009, according to the Bundesnetzagentur (BNetzA – Federal Network Agency). As a result, one in every two modules sold worldwide last year landed on German roofs. However, the Photon researchers are not excited about the record growth, but rather that they correctly predicted it. While other analysts only gave Germany credit for a maximum of 2500 MWs in 2009 in their spring prognoses, Photon Consulting committed itself to 3900 MWs in March, despite the recession – and was only out by 100 MW on the figure that was actually achieved. “Our analysts are able to very accurately evaluate magnitudes,” says Photon spokesperson Bernd Schüßler.

Actually, the bull’s-eye is more of a fluke, as it is virtually impossible to provide a reliable prognosis for the German photovoltaics market at the moment. Too many factors are influencing its development, parameters are changing almost monthly. The greatest surprise came in December of the previous year: Despite ice and snow, solar installers installed PV systems with a capacity of 1455 MW. Prognoses had not dared to give technicians a monthly quota of more than 1000 MW.